SECULAR BEAR MARKET

About of SECULAR BEAR MARKET









The Hindu Business Line : Is he a secular bull or bear?

  • . By secular, Addy meant `not religious, ' but a secular bull or bear market is a long-term move in a market, when the market trades in the same direction for a decade or two.
  • . An example of a secular bull market was the 1982-2000 boom in stocks "when the Dow rallied from under 800 to nearly 12, 000, " notes www.stockhouse.ca .
  • . "Nearly 10 years of a corrective bear market to be followed by a secular bull market...



    Between Bulls, Bears, and Bafflement
  • . The most famous secular bear market lasted 24 years before the DJIA began a bull market that eventually surpassed the high watermark set just prior to the Great Crash of October, 1929.
  • . Today, as the DJIA hovers around the 10, 000 mark -- following the 18-year secular bull market that came to a crashing conclusion in early 2000 -- investors again are wondering if Dow 10, 000 represents much the same barrier as Dow 1, 000? Before we attempt to answer that question, let's first clarify a few terms.
  • . A cyclical bull market begins with a 20% or more bounce off the prior bear market's closing low.
  • . A secular bull market occurs when a cyclical bull goes on to set new record highs.
  • . The S&P 500 is currently in a cyclical bull market.
  • . The most recent bear market ended on Oct.
  • . Of course, we didn't really know we were in a new bull market until May 6, 2003, when the S&P 500 closed at 934.39, more than 20% above the October, 2002 low.
  • . So, are we at the beginning of a new secular bull market? We believe it's too soon to tell.



    BW Online | May 14, 2001 | Technically Speaking, the Market Looks Good
  • . EDITION E.BIZ SUPPLEMENT INTERNATIONAL EDITIONS MAY 14, 2001 FINANCE Technically Speaking, the Market Looks Good Most technical analysts say the rally will continue STORY TOOLS FINANCE Technical analysts used to be the Rodney Dangerfields of Wall Street, for years calling one downturn after another while the market plowed ahead.
  • . Market internals such as the ratio of advancers to decliners, up-to-down volume, and investor-sentiment readings are positive, in stark contrast to the way matters stood a little more than a year ago.
  • . "The market is moving higher." Technical analysis is the study of the information generated by the internal workings of the market.
  • . Driehaus, a money manager who uses technical analysis, asserts that markets "are more behavioral than science." Richard McCabe, chief market analyst at Merrill Lynch & Co., homes in on the ratio of Nasdaq-to-New York Stock Exchange volume to gauge speculative activity.
  • . Investor sentiment, a contrarian indicator, hit a low in March, a good sign for the market.



    Tech Stocks vs. Gold Stocks
  • . Since the burst of the tech bubble it has become readily apparent that we are in the beginning stages of a secular bear market in general equities.
  • . So does this mean we are in line for another massive tech rally? Absolutely not! Every bear market experiences , and historically those poor souls that get caught up in them and believe them to be new beginnings usually end up sacrificing their hard-earned capital to the tech abyss.
  • . Over the course of history, for bulls and bears alike, the financial markets have punished the ignorant and rewarded the prudent.
  • . Investors who consistently make money in the financial markets are unbiased in their investment strategies and focus on the fundamentals of every market sector.
  • . If the general stock markets appear to be in a long-term downtrend, there is usually some other venue that has or will catch wind in its sail and outperform them.
  • . Commodities, like the stock market, have a history of running in large cycles over time.

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    The treacherous nature of bear market rallies | Dr. Marc Faber
  • Saturday, June 17 - 2006 | : Browse related articles The treacherous nature of bear market rallies 'The market itself is forecasting recovery' reads the recent headline of a well known financial publication.
  • . As someone who follows market movements very closely and tries to read signals the markets may give about future business conditions, I was also interested in the market's recent strength.
  • . For a market, which has become very over-sold, it is only natural to rebound, but frequently these rebounds are merely bear market rallies, which are subsequently followed by vicious declines.
  • . Probably the most famous bear market rally in history is the rise, which took place following the October crash of 1929.
  • . This famous and well-documented bear market rally took place for a number of reasons.
  • . After the October 29 crash, the market had become very oversold - incidentally far more oversold than the US stock market's position on September 21, 2000.
  • . The interest rate cuts after April 1930 did, however, no longer support the stock market, which began to sell off once more.


    No, the bear market is not over! | Dr. Marc Faber
  • Saturday, June 17 - 2006 | : Browse related articles No, the bear market is not over! Since early October most stock markets around the world have rallied sharply and many stocks are up by more than 50 per cent from their lows.
  • . Tuesday, November 05 - 2002 at 16:08 related stories There are, however, a number of factors, which suggest that the present rally is unlikely to be the beginning of a new bull market, but rather a treacherous bear market rally, which will be followed by renewed weakness in 2003.
  • . From the October 10th low, the market has generated three opening gaps.
  • . Asked whether in 12 months time the markets would be higher or lower than at present, 28% of fund managers answered that the market would be 'much higher', 48% 'slightly higher' (single digit returns), while only 9% responded that the market would be 'slightly lower' and just 6% that it would be 'much lower'.
  • . These sentiment surveys and the still low cash positions among mutual funds certainly do not reveal any capitulation at all on the side of investors - an event, which usually coincide with 'major' bear market lows, such as we had in 1974, 1982 and 1990.


    Zig Ziglar Full Newsletter
  • . You might spend hundreds of marketing dollars to capture one new customer, and it may take you days or weeks to get a new customer.
  • . ., Ph.D., is a marketing coach for small business owners and managers.
  • . Contact him via . Guest Feature: Surviving A Secular Bear Market By Wayne Peterson A new market reality has arrived--and I don't mean the "new bull market" that is now being talked up in the media.
  • . The stock market we learned to love in the 1980s and 1990s is history--and we are dealing with a new reality: a secular bear market.
  • . Secular markets.
  • . Stock prices rise in "bull" markets and fall in "bear" markets.
  • . Most of what you read and hear refers to the shorter bull and bear market cycles, which last about three years.
  • . Secular markets, then, are longer cycles.
  • . The last secular market we experienced lasted from 1983 to 1999.
  • . It was the greatest secular bull market in US history.
  • . That allowed investors to "buy and hold" stocks, knowing that if the market dropped after they bought, it would surely go higher.


    Evanson Asset Management - Asset Allocation for Bears
  • . ASSET ALLOCATION FOR BEARS (Updated August 2005) We cannot know the future with certainty and this is particularly true when it comes to financial market returns, the economy, interest rates and other matters of concern to investors.
  • . We have a large and persuasive body of research showing that markets cannot be consistently timed for profit, that picking stocks or individual securities is unlikely to outperform passive investment strategies, and that eminent economists cannot predict future moves in the economy any more accurately than chance.
  • . A pure passive and index strategy therefore ignores current economic and financial market events and opinions and focuses on probable long-term risks and returns available from highly diversified equity and fixed income portfolios.
  • . Current economic and financial market events are ignored as noise and the focus is on long-term statistical probabilities.
  • . An exclusive focus on past long-term market return data may disappoint investors putting money into equity markets in the early 2000's.

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    Proud to Be a Gold Miner Hoarder (Market Vectors-Gold Miners, StreetTracks Gold Trust, iShares Comex Gold Trust, Van Eck International GolX)| SmartMoney.com
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  • . Some market watchers think $800-an-ounce gold is a distinct possibility within 12 months, and $1, 000 isn't out of the question within the next couple of years.


    Baby Boom Bust (The Pro Shop)| SmartMoney.com
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  • . "A lower labor force growth hurts our prosperity." One doomsday scenario Sinai doesn't subscribe to is the idea that boomers' mass retirement will lead to a lengthy bear market.


    Fool.com: Foolish Collective [Post of the Day] June 30, 2004
  • Quotes: Search: Welcome POST OF THE DAY Foolish Collective Market Dregs, Low P/Es Where are we Going Related Links Discussion Boards By kitkatklub June 30, 2004 Posts selected for this feature rarely stand alone.
  • . If we are currently entering the initial stages of a secular bear market, lets hope that's not the true definition.
  • . There have been seven secular bear markets and seven secular bull markets since 1800.
  • . The average returns for the bear markets has been 0.3% and the average returns for the bull markets has been 13.2%.
  • . It was the wrong time to be in the market for the long haul--17 years of small returns on equities.
  • . The bull market from 1982 to 2000 saw the DOW rise 1239% from 875 to 11, 723.
  • . A great time to be in the market.
  • . The average length of bear markets is 14 years and the average for bulls is 15 years.
  • . Where are we now? If you believe that the market must revert to the mean as Mauldin, Grantham and a few other bears do, you would have to say we are entering in to a secular bear that started in 2000 and has another 10 years to run.


    FT.com / Markets / Investor's notebook - On Wall Street: Worrying signs for the economy
  • . The Dow is still stuck in a trading range in what continues to look like a secular bear market.
  • . Why should we care about the Dow? It was the first stock index, established 110 years ago, and offers greater opportunities to view historical market trends than any other index.
  • . It is based on share price, rather than market capitalisation.
  • . The laggards weighing it down have included which is no surprise, and the big technology names, which are no longer able to lead the market as they did in the late 1990s.
  • . The market’s judgment on the tech sector has been so severe that at one point on Thursday the Nasdaq Composite was down 10 per cent since its high in May – fitting the standard definition for a correction.
  • . That was bad news for stocks, but it at least encouraged the bond market that the Fed might desist from a further tightening of the Fed Funds rate at the end of this month.
  • . According to the futures market, the odds on this happening dropped to below 50 per cent once the employment numbers came out.

  • SECULAR BEAR MARKET ?



    Is this the end of the bear market?

  • Is this the end of the bear market? For three years global stock markets have been locked in the embrace of a bear market.
  • . But has the bear been driven back into hibernation? For three years global stock markets have been locked in the embrace of a bear market.
  • . "There are a number of signals that smell like it's the end of the bear market - but that isn't yet the start of the bull market, " he said.
  • . UBS is basing its cautiously upbeat assessment on a series of factors: an improvement in the geopolitical outlook following the end of war in Iraq; economic stabilisation; and signs that, although corporate activity is not picking up to any marked extent, "ideas are bouncing round the market", as a spokesman said yesterday.
  • . Although Mr Wuffli is more optimistic than a number of other bank bosses, he is not alone in his assessment that the days of the bear market may be drawing to a close.
  • . Deutsche Bank James Barty, the head of pan-European strategy at Deutsche Bank, reckons that "we are 80% of the way to saying this is the end of the bear market".


    WebProWorld :: View topic - No Internet Bubble?
  • . They see the Web as another media platform that can be part of a companies branding and direct marketing mix.
  • . Is it a secular bear market? 2.
  • . At that bottom everybody will hate the market.
  • . Read more here: Another sign? Important broken link (with the message "Professor favours market timing ...") And "that this (secular bear) market will end in tears".
  • . We have seen a banner ad trend, text marketing on search engines, and next may be affiliate marketing.


    FSO Editorials: Some Thoughts on Investing by Robert B. Gordon 02.28.2003
  • . In recent history, two names come to mind, Bill Gates and Sam Walton, who revolutionized computer software and retail marketing.
  • . The saddest fact is that, in this major bear market, there will be no place for large foundations to take safe refuge.
  • . This is due to the massive ignorance at all levels in our society of the history of previous market manias and panics.
  • . That is why, in the fourth year of this "once-in-a-century" bear market, the majority of Wall street analysts are bullish and recommending a customary 70% stock allocation.
  • . These losses will keep rising as the bear market continues its relentless path to a distant future bottom.
  • . Based on the investing records after 1929-32 and 1973-74, it will be a long, long time before many return to the stock market, if ever.
  • . It failed our nation in the1920s bull market and 1929 Crash and again in the even greater Mania of the 1990s.
  • . Siegel has recently claimed the end of the bear market and neither of them show any awareness of Ralph Elliotts brilliant book disclosing the great "Elliott Wave Principle." I am aware of only two articles by Ph.D.


    Five Signs Of Financial Reckoning Day
  • Sat Jun 17, 2006 Put/Call Ratio Put/Call Ratio: Five Signs of Financial Reckoning Day by Dan Denning The Daily Reckoning Madrid, Spain Tuesday, 10 February 2004 Dan Denning gives the five economic indicators he uses to draw conclusions about the direction of the market, including the volatility index, the, and others.
  • . This 100% automatic, no-judgment-calls system for profiting from the stock market is truely a Guaranteed Money Multiplier...The secret lies in three indicators that accurately measure a stock’s Momentum, Strength and Trend -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The trouble with trouble is that there is not enough of it.
  • . When markets are at bottoms - such as they were in August of 1982 - investors are timid.
  • . Gradually, as long as no really serious trouble develops, the market climbs the 'wall of worry' and the news becomes less threatening.
  • . This was the state of mind of millions when the first phase of the present bear market struck in March of 2000.


    Taking The Bull By The Horns
  • . Despite debating the consequences of ‘peak oil’ for several days, these guys have failed to exhaust either themselves or their supply of worthwhile investment insights.” For the rest of this story, and for more market insights, see today’s issue of The Rude Awakening: -------------- Bill Bonner, back in London with more views...
  • . Note: You can get more insights from David Fuller in today’s essay...but in the meantime, check out the deal our friends over at EverBank are offering for their MarketSafe Gold Bullion CD...
  • . Learn what you can expect from today's markets and how to prosper in the face of uncertainty.
  • . -Andrew Palmer, Director E-commerce Marketing We Value Your Privacy --------------------- The Daily Reckoning PRESENTS: Global stock markets, long-dated government bonds and commodities usually move in very long-term trends, often lasting for a generation.
  • . TAKING THE BULL BY THE HORNSby David Fuller Global stock markets, long-dated government bonds and commodities go through cycles that can last for a while since it takes a long time for the crowd, which participated in a market bubble, to realize that it is not returning after a few years.


    Thoughts from the Frontline
  • | Main Menu Sponsors Earnings Deflation October 24, 2003By John Mauldin Plausible Expectations We Are Losing the War in Europe The Investor's Glass Ceiling Earnings Deflation Earnings Have Not Kept Up With Inflation April Fools Investing Halloween in New Orleans Additional Options Earnings season is upon us, and with each announcement the market seems to surge on new ecstasies or retreat with disillusionment.
  • . They are examples of why I can be such an optimist, even as I tell you we are in a secular bear market.
  • . They say that the theft and sale of Army supplies by our troops is the basis of their black market.
  • . A Realistic Appraisal on the Prospects for Earnings Growth "Following Benjamin Graham's teachings, Charlie and I let our marketable equities tell us by their operating results - not by their daily, or even yearly, price quotations - whether our investments are successful.
  • . The market may ignore business success for a while, but eventually will confirm it.
  • . "As Ben said: 'In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.' The speed at which a business's success is recognized, furthermore, is not that important as long as the company's intrinsic value is increasing at a satisfactory rate." ---Warren Buffett, 1987 Chairman's Letter What the market weighs in the long run is earnings: old-fashioned in-your-pocket earnings.

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